16-07-2014

D&B's Global Economic Outlook to 2018 - June 2014

Improving Long-Term Sentiments

Over five years since the end of the 2008-09 recession, risks associated with doing cross-border business in the global economy still remain elevated. Although we are optimistic that the global economy is improving, the recovery is the most protracted in the past century and growth remains below long-term trend levels. Real global growth in the period 2000-07 averaged 3.7% per year, compared with an average 2.2% per year in the period 2009-2014.

Global Risk Insights

  • The recovery from the 2008-09 recession remains the most challenging in the past century.
  • However, the global economy has healed many of its wounds since the crisis.
  • As a result we are better positioned than at any point since 2009.
  • Headwinds still remain in the form of debt levels, potential asset bubbles, policy-making in the advanced economies, and imbalances in the emerging markets, but…
  • Better years are still to come, if corporate strategy and policy deliver.

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